Stephane Hallegatte // The World Bank Group, Washington, DC, USATo the profile
Including Natural Disasters into Macro-fiscal Models and AnalysesResearch Seminars
With increasing attention to risks from climate change, including at the World Bank, IMF, and many central banks, a lot of work is ongoing to include natural disasters and other climate change risks into the models and tools used to design macro-fiscal policies. The objective is to better inform economic, fiscal, and monetary policies, and take climate change into account in debt sustainability and other macroeconomic assessments. However, macroeconomic models have not been designed to explore the consequences of natural shocks and stressors, which makes this inclusion far from straightforward. Using examples from a few countries and projects, this presentation will review a few important considerations and mechanisms that need to be taken into account in macro-fiscal assessments of natural disaster and climate change risks, and propose solutions to do so.