Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations

Research Seminars

The paper presented in this ZEW Virtual Market Design Seminar shows that consumers rely on the prices changes of goods in their personal grocery bundles when forming expectations about aggregate inflation. The authors analysis uses novel representative micro data that uniquely match individual expectations, detailed information about consumption bundles, and item-level prices. The data also reveal that the weights consumers assign to price changes depend on the frequency of purchase, rather than expenditure share, and that positive price changes loom larger than similar-sized negative price changes. Prices of goods offered in the same store but not purchased (any more) do not affect inflation expectations, nor do other dimensions such as the volatility of price changes. Their results provide empirical guidance for models of expectations formation with heterogeneous consumers.


  • Ulrike Malmendier Ph.D.

    Ulrike Malmendier Ph.D. // University of California, Berkeley, USA

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