International initiatives for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) could make critical, cost-effective contributions to tropical countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions. Norway, a key donor of such initiatives, has a REDD+ partnership with Indonesia, offering results-based payments in exchange for emissions reductions calculated against a historical baseline. Central to this partnership is an area-based Moratorium on new oil palm, timber and logging concessions in primary dryland and peat-land forests. We evaluate the effectiveness of the Moratorium between 2011 and 2018 by applying a matched triple difference strategy to a unique panel dataset. Treated dryland forest inside Moratorium areas retain at most, an average of 0.65% higher forest cover com-pared to untreated dryland forest outside the Moratorium. By contrast, carbon-rich peatland forest is unaffected by the Moratorium. Cumulative avoided dryland deforestation from 2011 until 2018 translates into 61.7-87.1 million tons of emissions reductions, implying an effective carbon price below Norway’s US$5 per ton price. Based on Norway’s price, our estimated cumulative emissions reductions are equivalent to a payment of US$308.4-435.6 million. Annually, our estimates suggest a 3-4 percent contribution to Indonesia’s NDC commitment of a 29% emissions reduction by 2030. As reducing emissions from deforestation is critical for meeting this commitment, REDD+ outcomes could be improved by expanding the Moratorium and reforming its incentives and institutional arrangements, particularly in peatland forest areas.


Ben Groom

University of Exeter, United Kingdom

Environmental, energy, and ecological problems have grown faster than their solutions. Economists have an important role to play to address these issues by using the latest science, rigorous methods and innovative policy solutions. The SWEEEP webinar series aims to convene the academic community to contribute to the scientific, economic, and policy discourses on important environmental and energy issues.

The seminar presentations are scheduled to last 60 minutes, with questions at the end.

The European Institute on Economics and the Environment is a partnership between Resources for the Future and Foundation CMCC. EIEE’s impartial economic and environmental research aims to facilitate the transition to a sustainable, inclusive society.
Contact: Professor Massimo Tavoni

The Energy Management research team at the Grenoble Ecole de Management (GEM) combines research on economics, strategic management, technology innovation and energy policy in order to create and share knowledge that will help society move towards a low-carbon future.
Contact: Professor Sébastien Houde

The ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research is a leading German economic policy institute and a member of the Leibniz Association. ZEW's applied research aims to study and help design well-performing markets and institutions in Europe. In particular, it seeks to understand how to create a market framework that will enable the sustainable and efficient development of European economies.
Contact: Professor Sebastian Rausch

The Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE) was established in 1999 to complement the natural science and technical-oriented disciplines at ETH Zurich, by contributing to research and teaching in energy policy and economics.  Through rigorous application of modern empirical methods, the goal of CEPE is to make critical contributions to the design and evaluation of energy and climate policy instruments.
Contact: Professor Massimo Filippini


17.03.2021 | 15:00 - 16:00 (CET)

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