The Financial Market Report CEE presents the results of a survey by ZEW and Erste Group Bank AG Vienna, among financial market experts and was published monthly for the period between June 2007 and April 2013 and is published quarterly from June 2013 on. It offers insights into the assessment of the current economic situation, and their expectations for Central and Eastern Europe, Austria and the Eurozone for the next six months concerning the general economic situation, inflation rates, interest rates, exchange rates and stock market indices. The indicators reflect the difference between the percentage of analysts who are optimistic and the percentage of analysts who are pessimistic. The possible outcome of the balance lies between -100 and +100 points. Positive values of the balance indicate that the number of participants expecting a rise in the respective variable outweigh the number of participants with negative expectations.

ATTENTION

The publication "Financial Market Report CEE" was released in September 2015 for the last time.

Financial Market Report CEE September 2015

Content

  • Fluctuations in Economic Expectations for the CEE Region
  • Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia: Stable Current Situation
  • Croatia, Hungary, and Romania: Economic Sentiments Deteriorate
  • Economic Expectations Deteriorate to Match Weak Current Situation
  • Special Question: Wage Expectations and Wage Inequality

More issues in 2015

Survey

The Financial Market Survey Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is a monthly survey by the ZEW (Centre for European Economic Research) supported by "Erste Group Bank AG", Vienna, about the aggregate developments and expectations for the region's capital markets.

The ZEW accomplishes the analogue monthly survey for Germany since 1991. The survey’s aim is to develop indicators for the economic situation in Central and Eastern Europe and Austria (CEE) in general.

Financial market experts are questioned about their assessment on the current economic situation and their medium-term expectations for the national financial markets in the CEE region regarding the economic development, inflation rate, short- and long-term interests, share prices and exchange rates. Assessed are financial Markets in Central and Eastern Europe and the Eurozone as well as in the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Croatia, Romania, Austria, and Turkey (from October 2010 on).

The quarterly published Financial Market Report CEE contains detailed results about the countries in Central and Eastern Europe and Austria.

The financial experts give qualitative assessments of their expectations regarding future changes. For example, they judge whether short-term interests will increase (+), decrease (-) or level off (=) within the next six months. The limitation to qualitative statements is justified by the need for quick answers despite a large number of questions. The survey's participants usually have two weeks to answer the questionnaire.

Analysis

The financial experts. individual forecasts are summarised in the percentage distributions of answers. For most purposes it is necessary to describe the distribution of the three answering categories with a single value. This result can be interpreted as mean expectation. Mostly the balance S=(p-m) of the percentage distribution p of the positive category (+) and percentage distribution m of the negative category (-) is used. By encoding the three categories as +1, 0 and -1, the balance results in the mean value of responses.
(For more information, please visit the websites of the ZEW Financial Market Report and ZEW Financial Market Survey.)

Contact

Phone: +49 (0)621 1235-368

Fax: +49 (0)621 1235-223

michael.schroeder@zew.de

Phone: +49 (0)621 1235-346

Fax: +49 (0)621 1235-223

zwetelina.iliewa@zew.de

Phone: +49 (0)621 1235-372

Fax: +49 (0)621 1235-223

teske@zew.de

Friedrich Mostboeck
(Erste Bank)
friedrich.mostboeck@erstebank.at