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[ D] Overall ranking (all 3- and 6-months forecasts combined):
The value in brackets (Theil’s U) indicates if the banks’ forecasts were better (value less than 1) or worse (value larger than 1) than the benchmark.
Twenty banks participated in the latest ZEW forecast survey which is published in the Börsenzeitung.
The following table shows the five best forecasters and their values (Theil’s U) in each category. The forecast quality of all 3- and 6-months forecasts was combined
Table 5: The Best Forecasters
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The participating banks’ trend forecasts were analysed in addition to the point forecasts for the twelfth time. The trend forecasts can be of great significance for users of forecasts. This additional information can differ from the point forecasts. In comparison to the point forecasts, participants can rank better in the trend forecasts and vice versa. The best trend forecasters are listed in the following table.
Table 6: The Best Forecasters
(click for enlargement)
Overall ranking (all 3- and 6-months forecasts combined):
