China Economic Panel
China Economic Panel | Business survey | Greater China | Short-term forecast | Cyclical indicator | China
In March, the CEP Indicator improves significantly and is now at 14.5 points.

According to the current survey for March (28 February – 16 March 2017), the economic outlook for China has significantly improved by 18.7 points. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, is currently at 14.5 points (February 2017: minus 4.2 points). This is the first time since July 2016 that the indicator has significantly exceeded the long-term average of 5.1 points. The surveyed experts' assessment of the current situation at 3.3 points was one point lower than the previous month's assessment.

Research
Real estate | Real estate price | Financial market | ZEW Financial Market Survey
The majority of the financial analysts agreed that housing prices in Germany\\\'s major cities were currently fundamentally overvalued.

A perceptible drop in the price of residential properties in Germany's major cities would not endanger the country's financial stability in any serious way. This is the finding of a survey carried out among over 200 financial market experts in March 2017 by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, as part of the monthly ZEW Financial Market Survey. Nevertheless, the overwhelming majority of the surveyed financial analysts agreed that housing prices in Germany's major cities were currently fundamentally overvalued.

Comment
Federal Reserve Bank | Interest Rate | Interest rate policy | ECB

Three months after the last rate hike in December 2016, the US Federal Reserve System has decided to raise the federal funds rate again, to a range between 0.75 and 1.0 per cent. Friedrich Heinemann, head of the ZEW Research Department "Corporate Taxation and Public Finance" at the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim, comments:

ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Business Cycle | Cyclical indicator | Short-term forecast | Germany | Business survey | ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, March 2017

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany improved slightly by 2.4 points in March 2017, with the indicator now standing at 12.8 points. The long-term average, which has been calculated since the survey was begun, is 23.9 points. "The fact that the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment only shows a slight upward movement is a reflection of the current uncertainty surrounding future economic development. With regard to the economic situation in Germany, no clear conclusions can be drawn from the most recent economic signals for January 2017. While industrial production and exports witnessed a positive development, the figures for incoming orders and retail sales were less favourable. The political risks resulting from upcoming elections in a number of EU countries are keeping uncertainty surrounding the German economy at a relatively high level," comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach, PhD.

Comment
Monetary policy decisions | Interest Rate | Interest rate policy | Monetary Policy | ECB
The ECB has decided to continue its bond-purchase programme as planned until the end of the year.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to leave its key interest rates unchanged and to continue its bond-purchase programme as planned until the end of the year. Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the ZEW Research Department "Corporate Taxation and Public Finance" at the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), comments on the ECB's decision.

Comment
Brexit | Europe | EU policy | EU Parliament

Speaking at the European Parliament today, President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker presented his White Paper on the future of the EU. President of the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Professor Achim Wambach has subsequently commented:

Comment
Economic policy | International Economic Policy | United States | U.S. presidential election

In his first speech to Congress, US President Donald Trump outlined the key aspects of his government programme. Professor Friedrich Heinemann, head of the Research Department "Corporate Taxation and Public Finance" at the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), comments on the economic and fiscal policy measures Trump proposed in his address to Congress.

Research
Research funding | Public Expenditure | Conveying device | Research and Development | Research financing | Promotional measures
In 2015, federal and state R&D expenditure in the research and business sector amounted to 25.08 billion euros.

Between 2005 and 2015, public spending on research and development (R&D) in Germany has seen a nominal increase of around 50 per cent. In 2015, federal and state R&D expenditure in the research and business sector amounted to 25.08 billion euros. This increase, however, is not sufficient to meet the target set by the German government, which hoped to see the share of public R&D spending reach 1.15 per cent of the GDP by 2025. These are the findings of a recent study carried out by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim on behalf of the Commission of Experts for Research and Innovation (EFI).

Research
Worker Replacement | KfW/ZEW Start-up Panel | Productivity | Young firms
When employees are replaced, this has negative effects on the productivity of young firms.

While studies have shown that a moderate level of staff turnover can benefit established companies by contributing to an increase in productivity, this is not the case for more recently established firms. When employees at these younger firms are replaced, this has negative effects on the firms' productivity. This negative effect is particularly marked if the company founders have no experience of managing staff, and also becomes more pronounced the more recently the company was founded. In terms of the damage done to the productivity of these young firms by staff turnover, it does not make any difference whether the replaced employees left the company of their own accord or whether they were let go by the firm. These are the findings of a recent study carried out by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim.

China Economic Panel
China Economic Panel | Business survey | Greater China | Short-term forecast | Cyclical indicator | China
In February, the CEP Indicator is at a minus of 4.2 points.

According to the current survey for February (conducted between 31 January 2017 and 17 February 2017), the economic outlook for China has improved slightly. The CEP Indicator, which reflects the expectations of international financial market experts regarding China’s macroeconomic development over the coming twelve months, has risen by 1.7 points compared to the previous month to a current total of minus 4.2 points. This falls far below the current long-term average of 4.8 points.

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