The assessment of the economic situation in Germany remains pessimistic and affects transport markets. Stagnating or even decreasing transport volumes are hence expected in the coming six months. Prices for freight transport in the various transport sectors will develop heterogeneously in the light of demand, cost trends and the competitive environment. Despite the reduction of freight volumes, a price increase is expected in most transport sectors – even more so as the fuel price, a significant cost driver, has grown recently. These are the findings of the ProgTrans/ZEW Transportmarktbarometer (Transport Market Barometer) in the fourth quarter of 2012. In this survey, ProgTrans AG, Basel, and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) interview some 250 top executives from the transport and loading industry on a quarterly basis about their assessment regarding the development of transport markets and prices on a six-month horizon.
A look at the individual transport sectors shows that the development of the transport demand for road freight and combined traffic is likely to stagnate. However, the transport volume of rail freight and inland navigation is expected to decrease. CEP services (courier, express, and package services) and intercontinental air and sea freight offer a small glimmer of light. In these sectors, growing demand is expected.
The experts assume rising prices in almost every transport sector in the next six months. The extent of price increases, though, is expected to vary. Comparably significant price increases are forecasted for international rail freight, national road freight, CEP services and air freight. For inland navigation, however, the experts expect a very moderate price development. All other transport sectors show less distinctive and very heterogeneous upward price trends.
Dr. Stefan Rommerskirchen (progtrans), Phone +41 61/56035-10, E-mail email@example.com
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