For Germany as well as for other industrial countries, an undisturbed supply of crude oil and natural gas is of great importance. Researchers of the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) surveyed some 200 experts from the energy industry in Germany who highlighted aspects perceived as guaranteeing an undisturbed supply: long-existing supply relationships with countries exporting crude oil and natural gas, and a high degree of economic development within these countries. A destabilising effect, however, is a high level of corruption in the supplying country’s administration and economy. This is the assessment of the current ZEW Energy Market Barometer. Every six months, about 200 experts from the energy industry are surveyed on current topics for the ZEW Energy Market Barometer.
87 per cent of the surveyed experts consider especially trustworthy those energy suppliers which are maintaining long-existing supply relationships with industrial countries. For 85 per cent of the surveyed experts, a nearly equally important factor for stable supply relationships is a high degree of economic development of the supplying country. Norway and Great Britain are a fine example of such a stable supply relationship. Even though a number of energy exporting states are not democratic, for 71 per cent of the surveyed experts, a democratic political system in the supplying country is a crucial criterion for a long-lasting and reliable energy supplier. 54 per cent of the survey participants assess it as a stabilising factor if Germany receives a large share of the overall resource exports of a country..
Corrupt structures within the supplying country have a particularly negative impact on the reliability of supply by a country. 86 per cent of the surveyed experts are convinced of that. If a supplier provides other besides German with energy resources, one third of the surveyed experts believe this can also have a destabilising effect on the supply relationships.
The ZEW Energiemarktbarometer (Energy Market Barometer) is an industry-specific indicator of economic sentiment based on a semi-annual survey of the energy supply, trade, and services industries, as well as regional suppliers in Germany. It comprises the expectations of more than 200 experts concerning short and long-term developments in the national and international energy markets. The results of the current ZEW Energiemarktbarometer (survey period May 2012) will be published in the ZEWnews 07/08-2012 (German language only).
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