The ZEW-Erste Group Bank Economic Sentiment Indicator for Central and Eastern Europe including Turkey (CEE) has slightly decreased by 4.6 points in December 2011 to a level of minus 41.4 points. Economic expectations for the eurozone have declined by 8.3 points to a level of minus 63.6 points. The economic sentiment indicator for the CEE region and further financial market data have been surveyed monthly by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim, with the support of Erste Group Bank in Vienna, since 2007.
The assessment of the current economic situation for the CEE region has displayed a major decrease by 19.5 points to a level of minus 14.2 points. The indicator displays a negative value for the first time since September 2009. Experts’ pessimism is also expressed by the assessment of the current situation for the Eurozone. The respective indicator further declines by 4.7 points to a value of minus 57.8 points – the lowest since July 2009.
Survey Procedure and Methodology
The Financial Market Survey CEE is a survey carried out among financial market experts by the Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) and the Erste Group Bank AG in Vienna. The target of this survey is to develop indicators describing the economic conditions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as well as in Austria. The CEE region observed in the survey consists of Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and since October 2010 Turkey.
The financial experts are questioned on their evaluations of the current business situation, the medium-term prospects of the respective economies and their expectations as to the development of the inflation rate, the short- and long-term interest rates, the exchange rates and stock prices on a six month time horizon. The analysts’ assessments reflect the qualitative direction of the estimated changes. The monthly ‘Financial Market Report CEE’ contains the results for every Central and Eastern European country in detail.
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