Contact

Gunter Grittmann
Head of Information and Communication
E-mail: grittmann@zew.de
Phone: +49 (0)621-1235-132
Fax: +49 (0)621-1235-255

Kathrin Böhmer
Public Relations Officer
E-mail: boehmer@zew.de
Phone: +49 (0)621-1235-103
Fax: +49 (0)621-1235-225

List of Tags

all tags

Skip Content Area

Content Area

Press Release

Share article: E-mail | Social Media
Send feedback to the editors

07.04.2011 – ZEW/Forschungsinstitute (mkp)

Tags: Economic policy, Business Cycle, Short-term forecast

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2011: Continuing Upswing– European Debt Crisis Still Unresolved

In the spring of 2011, the global economy is on the upswing, in particular due to the momentum in emerging economies. Germany is also experiencing a strong economic recovery. The institutes expect that the German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will increase by 2.8 per cent this year and by 2.0 per cent in 2012. For 2011 and 2012, an unemployment rate of 6.9 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively, is expected.

The upwards trend will be gradually shifting towards domestic demand. Salaries will increase due to the upswing and the inflation rate will be relatively high with 2.4 per cent in 2011 and 2.0 per cent in 2011. Government net lending/net borrowing will decline to 1.7 per cent in 2011 and to 0.9 per cent in 2012, in relation to the nominal GDP. Events in other countries are the major risks to the economy. If there were a shortage of oil supply due to the increasing unrest in Arab countries or if the European debt and confidence crisis intensified, this would considerably affect the economy. Economic policy is to continue pursuing a consolidation strategy and work towards amendments to the European stabilisation mechanism.