The German Real Estate Finance Index (DIFI) run by ZEW and JLL climbed 7.3 points in the fourth quarter of 2017 to a current reading of 0.1 points, moving into positive territory for the first time this year. The assessment of the current financing situation for commercial real estate remained almost unchanged at 9.6 points compared to the previous quarter. The improved expectations for financing conditions in the coming six months can be seen in the context of the very positive economic outlook, which has been corrected upwards by various research institutes.

Average assessment of the current situation in and expectations for the four real estate market segments (Office, Retail, Logistics, Residential)
Average assessment of the current situation in and expectations for the four real estate market segments (Office, Retail, Logistics, Residential)

The most significant gains in terms of financing expectations for the next six months were recorded for the logistics, residential and office sectors. Despite these gains, however, the respective balances of optimistic and pessimistic assessments remain below zero, which indicates that expectations are still cautious. The experts’ expectations for retail financing, on the other hand, were similarly restrained as in the previous quarter. The DIFI surveys of the past three quarters have shown stable development for all refinancing markets. These are the key findings of the DIFI Report, a quarterly survey on the commercial real estate financing market in Germany carried out by ZEW in cooperation with JLL.

The German Real Estate Finance Index (DIFI)

The German Real Estate Finance Index (DIFI) reflects survey participants’ assessment of the current situation (including the previous six months) of and expectations (for the coming six months) for the commercial property financing market. It is conducted on a quarterly basis and calculated as the average value of the balances in the following four sectors of the property market: office, retail, logistics and residential. The balance for each segment is the difference between the percentage of participants who are optimistic and the percentage of participants who are pessimistic about the current state and future development of financing conditions in the German real estate market. The DIFI is a survey conducted and published by JLL and the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW). 45 experts participated in the November 2017 survey.

 

Historical Time Series (in German)

For further information please contact:

Dr. Oliver Lerbs, Phone +49/621 1235-147, E-mail oliver.lerbs@zew.de

Peter Buchmann, Phone +49 (0)621 1235-165, E-mail peter.buchmann@zew.de

 

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